Senin, 26 Januari 2009

Kerbau yang Tak Mendengus

Kompas,
Rabu, 21 Januari 2009 | 02:59 WIB

Oleh I Wibowo

Dalam sebulan penduduk China merayakan dua kali ”tahun baru”, tahun baru matahari dan tahun baru bulan. Yang pertama pada 1 Januari, yang kedua pada 26 Januari. ”Gongxi, gongxi!” Bagaimana rasanya mengucapkan ”selamat” pada dua kesempatan yang sama? Mungkin rasanya lebih ”mantap” pada kesempatan yang kedua karena memang sudah berakar dalam tradisi yang ribuan tahun.

Tetapi, mungkin sama tidak mantapnya karena tahun baru kali ini dibuka dengan perasaan galau. Tentu saja masih akan diucapkan Gongxi facai (semoga tambah kaya) pada awal Tahun Kerbau, tetapi berapa yang masih berani yakin bahwa kekayaannya bakal meningkat tahun ini?

Lihat saja bagaimana uang yang serba terbatas akan diputar. Para pemimpin China dua minggu lalu baru selesai mengadakan ”Konferensi Kerja tentang Ekonomi” di Beijing. Diputuskan pajak perusahaan akan dipotong sebesar satu persen dari yang sekarang sebesar lima persen. Ini akan menyuntikkan 120 miliar yuan (17,5 miliar dollar AS).

Selain itu, ambang pajak perorangan akan dinaikkan dari 2.000 yuan menjadi 3.000 yuan untuk menggenjot konsumsi domestik. Semua ini untuk mengiringi paket stimulus sebesar 586 miliar dollar AS yang diumumkan pada November tahun lalu. China memang memerlukan pertumbuhan sebesar 8 persen per tahun untuk menjaga agar tidak terjadi pengangguran (setiap tahun masuk 10 juta pencari kerja). Sementara itu, angka-angka ekonomi makro di China tidak terlalu menggembirakan, sama dengan banyak negara di dunia.

China memang ikut terseret dalam resesi akibat resesi di Amerika Serikat. Perusahaan memangkas buruh dan pegawainya, jumlah penganggur meningkat. Konsumen lebih suka menyimpan uangnya daripada membelanjakannnya. Bagaimana mungkin penduduk China bisa bergembira pada Tahun Kerbau yang semestinya menjanjikan kekayaan dan kegembiraan.

Sang Kerbau memang ada di situ, tetapi mungkin tidak kedengaran dengusnya. Pemerintah maupun rakyat China tahu dan sadar apa yang sedang terjadi saat ini. Perdana Menteri Wen Jiabao pada pertengahan Januari 2009 dengan jelas mengatakan bahwa krisis keuangan global saat ini merupakan ”ujian bagi bangsa”.

Membuat pusing

Bagi para petinggi Partai Komunis China, tahun 2008 sebenarnya sudah merupakan tahun penuh tantangan. Gejolak sosial makin kuat dan makin nyaring. Sepanjang tahun itu, ratusan bahkan ribuan petani dan buruh di banyak bagian China tidak takut mengadakan perlawanan atau protes atas ketidakadilan.

Pada bulan Mei terjadi gempa dahsyat di Provinsi Sichuan yang menelan ribuan nyawa, menghancurkan sebuah desa. Ini diiringi dengan protes besar-besaran di Tibet, yang mendapat sorotan tajam dari media internasional. Pada bulan September pecah kasus pencemaran susu dengan zat melamin yang berbuntut panjang, sampai ke seluruh dunia. Krisis keuangan global pada bulan yang sama hanya menambah deretan kekecewaan di antara para petinggi.

Sebuah survei nasional yang diadakan majalah Xiaokang bersama Sina.com pada tahun 2008 yang lalu menemukan, hanya satu dari lima orang di China yang merasa bahagia. Untung ada obat yang cukup kuat, yaitu Olimpiade Beijing pada musim panas, yang memberi hiburan.

Memasuki Tahun Kerbau, Partai Komunis China, sejatinya, pusing tujuh keliling melihat tumpukan masalah-masalah di atas. Sebuah negara modern, kata Habermas, didirikan atas dasar legitimasi ekonomi. Maka, kemunduran di bidang ekonomi tidak bisa tidak akan menimbulkan legitimation crisis. Ini yang membuat pusing para petinggi partai.

Sukses yang dicapai selama ini selalu didaku oleh partai sebagai bukti kehebatan partai dalam memimpin bangsa China. Ucapan Wen Jiabao di atas kiranya bukan basa-basi. Partai Komunis China harus berbuat sesuatu untuk keluar dari krisis, bahkan ke luar dengan kepala tetap tegak.

Jalan buntu

Ini sebabnya, kecuali menempuh kebijakan menyuntikkan dana sangat besar untuk stimulus ekonomi, Pemerintah China juga aktif menjalankan kebijakan poverty reduction, terutama di pedesaan. Negara memang berperan besar. Untuk meneduhkan rasa amarah dari petani dan buruh yang termarjinalisasi, partai menyerukan agar masyarakat China mengembangkan solidaritas antarindividu. Kampanye ”masyarakat yang padu” (hexie shehui) terus-menerus dikumandangkan di seluruh China. Hu Jintao, sekretaris jenderal partai dan sekaligus kepala negara, jelas tidak ingin main-main menghadapi krisis ini.

Ketika ditanya apakah China akan ikut mengatasi krisis keuangan global, kepala dan sekaligus CEO dari sovereign wealth fund China, Lou Jiwei, mengatakan dengan tegas bahwa China tidak berniat menanamkan investasinya di institusi keuangan di Barat, tidak juga berencana untuk ”menyelamatkan” dunia. Bagi China, yang nomor satu adalah menyelamatkan diri sendiri.

Memang dari tahun 1990 hingga 2008 China sebenarnya benar-benar berhasil menghindari gelombang globalisasi untuk meraih keuntungan, tanpa terkena berbagai guncangan yang berarti. Globalisasi yang digerakkan oleh motif keserakahan yang juga global, bagi China, kini dimaknai sudah masuk jalan buntu. Lebih baik China kembali ”ke dalam” dan berkonsentrasi ekonomi domestik.

Suasana sendu seperti ini, sialnya, persis bersamaan dengan perayaan sukses reformasi China. Tiga puluh tahun yang lalu, pada 30 Desember 1978, Komite Sentral memutuskan ”mereformasi dan membuka”, sebuah keputusan yang amat historis. Sepanjang waktu itu, China telah dipuji karena berhasil mengentaskan 500 juta orang dari kemiskinan.

Dari sebuah bangsa yang diejek sick man of Asia menjadi the rising China, China telah membuktikan kepada dunia bahwa reformasi itu benar-benar berhasil. Tetapi, persis pada klimaks kegembiraan ini, datanglah badai krisis finansial global yang menakutkan itu. Tiba-tiba muncul rasa waswas. Jangan-jangan ini ”saat yang menentukan” itu, yang diprediksi oleh banyak ekonom akan tiba pada suatu waktu.

Pada Tahun Kerbau 2009 China kiranya akan meneruskan reformasinya. Konsentrasinya ada pada masalah di dalam negeri, yang merentang dari ekonomi, politik, sampai sosial. China kiranya tidak berupaya bermain di panggung internasional, apalagi mengambil alih kepemimpinan AS di dunia atau di Asia Timur. Duet Hu Jintao dan Wen Jiabao kiranya cukup kuat untuk menahan terpaan badai yang sangat keras.

Dr I Wibowo, Ketua Centre for Chinese Studies, Fakultas Ilmu Budaya Universitas Indonesia

Sabtu, 17 Januari 2009

China key to easing global recession

China Daily
January 17, 2009

The United Nations is counting on China as Asia's "locomotive" for global economic growth, it said in a high-level report released on Friday.

In the World Economic Situation and Prospects 2009, UN experts forecast China will achieve between 7 and 8.9 percent growth this year, with the most likely figure being 8.4 percent.

In contrast, the global economy is forecast to grow by just 1 percent, down from 2.5 percent last year.

The UN report, jointly prepared by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the UN Conference on Trade and Development and five regional commissions, said China contributed about 22 percent to the world's economic growth last year, and the figure is set to grow this year.

Commenting on the report to China Daily, Wang Tongsan, an economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said: "It is beyond doubt that China will play a more important role in the world economy as the US and Japan experience setbacks."

The US economy is expected to slide 1 percent this year, while Japan's is forecast to drop by about 0.3 percent, he said.

So this year will see China making an "increased contribution to the world", Wang said.

The UN report also forecasts a continuing deceleration of economic activity in East Asia, with regional GDP growth expected to drop to 6 percent this year, down from 6.9 percent last year and 9 percent in 2007.

Weakened trade with Europe and the United States will curtail growth in most economies in Asia, including China, it said.

However, with $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and a balanced government budget, the UN report said that China still has room to adopt more expansionary fiscal policies.

China has already announced a $586 billion stimulus package (equivalent to 15 percent of the country's GDP) to boost its growth, the report said.

Premier Wen Jiabao told the media recently that further government spending was planned.

In contrast, the stimulus packages launched in some developed countries are too small, the report said.

"Governments are hesitant to move too quickly on such stimulus packages, fearing possible negative repercussions in the medium term," it said.

While the need for international policy coordination and cooperation is more pressing than ever, the UN said there is "no credible, institutionalized mechanism for international coordination of stimulus packages or monetary policies".

The IMF and World Bank should take the lead roles in enhancing international policy coordination, as well as in the participation of emerging and developing countries, it said.

"That is in line with the stance of the Chinese government," Zhu Baoliang, an economist with the State Information Center, said.

Source:China Daily

http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90884/6575904.html

Sabtu, 10 Januari 2009

China to the rescue?

Stephen Marks (2008-12-17)

Stephen Marks looks at the rising influence of China in the global economy in the wake of the financial crisis. China’s top economic decision-makers, gathering for a key meeting in Beijing, were reported to be planning a new tax boost to the economy, as support was pledged to recession-hit firms from airlines to carmakers. But latest figures showed the recession’s impact was worse than expected. Officials began their annual three-day Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing, which sets the tone for policies for the coming year. Informed sources suggested they could cut business tax for enterprises by 1 percentage point from the current 5 percent which would amount to a 120 billion yuan ($17.5 billion) boost.

They were also said to be discussing raising the threshold of personal income tax from 2,000 yuan to 3,000 yuan a month to spur domestic consumption.

This follows the massive $586 billion stimulus package on announced on Nov 9. China needs at least 8 percent annual growth to employ the roughly 10 million people entering the job market each year.

At the same time emergency cash bailouts have been announced for China’s ailing airlines. The Financial Times reported on 10 December that China Eastern Airlines will receive a Rmb3bn ($437m) cash injection from the government, following an equal handout to China Southern Airlines with Air China, the third of China’s ‘big three’, expected to follow.

At the same time as they were promised continuing government assistance, the airlines were told to cut imports from abroad - a blow to manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus who were hoping a booming China market would help them through the recession.

Earlier, it was announced that Chery, one of China’s largest automakers, has arranged access to loans of up to Rmb10bn ($1.45bn) from the state-owned China Export Import Bank. The carmaker’s domestic sales have fallen in line with a sharp slowdown in Chinese car sales.

The news came as the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced a 10 per cent drop in November car sales in China, the world’s second largest market.

New figures showed China’s industrial production growing at what was said to be the weakest pace in nine years as exports slowed and the economy cooled.
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According to the Financial Times: ‘exports fell in November for the first time in almost seven years. With demand in many of its main markets slowing sharply, Chinese exports declined 2.2 per cent from a year earlier. Imports also fell 17.9 per cent from a year earlier, according to Chinese customs figures, prompting the government to announce plans to further boost the economy.

‘The Chinese data shocked economists. The figures were far below forecasts, even in the light of sharp slumps in exports in November from both Taiwan and South Korea’.

This follows a warning from Central Bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan that China needs to prepare for a “worst case scenario” as the global slump worsens.

Exporters of toys, clothes and furniture were reported to be cutting production or closing down, triggering a surge in labour disputes and increasing the risk of social unrest.

Nonetheless some business analysts remained optimistic about China’s business prospects as the massive stimulus package begins to kick in later next year.

Gao Xiqing, vice-chairman and President of China’s $200m sovereign wealth fund China Investment Corp, told the Financial Times that he will no longer risk investing in western financial institutions because of concerns about their viability and a lack of consistency in their governments’ policies.

And in a fascinating in-depth interview with ‘Atlantic’ magazine he reveals how he concluded years ago that financial derivatives are ‘bullshit’ and advises the West to ’be nice to the countries that lend you money’.

At the same time Lou Jiwei, the fund’s chairman and CEO, confirmed that China had no plans for further investments in Western financial institutions, nor did it have any plans to “save” the world through economic policies.

A similar message was delivered by senior Chinese officials as they lectured top US officials in Beijing for a top-level economic summit. As the Financial Times reported;

‘The US was lectured about its economic fragilities on Thursday as senior Chinese officials urged the administration to stabilise its economy, boost its savings rate and protect Chinese investments.

‘The message went to Hank Paulson, the US Treasury secretary, in Beijing for the strategic economic dialogue he helped launch to discuss long-term issues between the two countries.
...Wang Qishan, a vice-premier and leader of the Chinese delegation at the two-day talks, called on the US to take swift action to address the crisis.

“We hope the US side will take the necessary measures to stabilise the economy and financial markets as well as guarantee the safety of China’s assets and investments in the US,” he said....Although China also faces a rapidly slowing economy and rising unemployment, the tone of the comments reflected an underlying shift in power.’

Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, observed: “One result of the crisis is that the US no longer holds the high ground to lecture China on financial or macroeconomic policies.”

As Associated Press pointed out, ‘Beijing owns $585 billion in Treasury debt that has helped to finance U.S. budget deficits and its holdings of other U.S. assets are growing. But the weak dollar and financial turmoil have fueled Chinese anxiety about such investments.

Nonetheless US Treasury secretary Paulson stressed that continuing US engagement with China was producing results in getting the world economy through the crisis. And his team stressed that President-elect Obama’s transition team was being fully briefed.

And it seems likely that despite campaign noises hinting at protectionism and a strong line on Tibet and human rights issues, the Obama administration will also be committed to positive engagement. As Bloomberg reported;

‘With the U.S. now officially in a recession, China holds more cards than it did even a few months ago. Washington is more reliant on Beijing- the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries -- to buy more government securities to finance deficit spending...The upside of interdependence is that the two nations should be less likely now to take punitive measures against each other, says Nicholas Lardy, an economist who specializes in China at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington. There’s no incentive for China to stop buying U.S. securities; it needs a safe investment for dollar reserves, and its growth depends on the health of the U.S. economy. Congress also may hesitate before demanding trade barriers against a country that’s the main source of cheap goods for budget- conscious consumers’

∗ Stephen Marks is a research associate with Fahamu’s China in Africa programme.

Source: http://www.pambazuka.org/en/category/africa_china/52762

Jumat, 09 Januari 2009

Hu Jintao's "bu zheteng" baffles foreign media

15:57, January 08, 2009


During the conference held on December 18 to commemorate the 30th anniversary of the reform and opening-up policy, after putting forward two major goals for the future, President Hu Jintao said that, "As long as we don't waver, don't slack off and don't ‘zheteng’ (折腾 in Chinese,get sidetracked), and as long as we firmly push forward reform and opening-up... we are certain to be able to successfully realize this grand blueprint and achieve the goals we are striving for."

Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao newspaper published an article on January 2 saying that, during the conference held by the Communist Party of China in commemoration of the 30th anniversary of the reform and opening-up policy, President Hu Jintao used in his speech a phrase from a northern Chinese dialect, "bu zheteng," something which has baffled the bilingual elite of Chinese and foreign media.

In demonstrating China's firm determination to walk the road of socialism, Hu used three "don'ts" in succession, saying, "As long as we don't waver, don't slack off and don't 'zheteng,' and as long as we firmly push forward reform and opening-up and walk the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics, we are certain to be able to successfully realise this grand blueprint and achieve the goals we are striving for."

According to the article, immediately after Hu used the phrase "bu zheteng", the audience at the Great Hall of the People burst out in a simultaneous laughter. In the official occasion of announcing the path to follow for a significant development, Hu, who was serious throughout his speech, suddenly used a colloquial expression, something which clearly sounded very intimate to the audience. However, the laughter also suggests that the audience understood what "zheteng" refers to and the connotation of "bu zheteng."

The author of the article believes that, since the country was founded by the Communist Party of China, the party has taken various wrong and ineffective paths, due to domestic and international factors. All previous political campaigns, the Anti-Rightist Movement and the Great Leap Forward, led to considerable damage to the nation's political and economical development. The Great Cultural Revolution, in particular, was the most harmful. Even the resolution of the reform and opening-up policy suffered a setback after 1989 and was not resumed until Deng Xiaoping's tour of the south of China in 1992. Today, all of the twists and turns as well as the mistakes made, are referred to as "bu zheteng", referring to the fact that China will not waste time in arguments about development direction and political conflicts, which are irrelevant to the development of the economy and can cause internal frictions. As well as targeting real issues, the phrase "bu zheteng" is characterized by great subtlety and precision.

Moving forward, for the international media that want to understand the thoughts of China, how can the phrase "bu zheteng" be translated?

Readers took the initiative to find all kinds of translations on the internet, such as "don't flip flop," "don't get sidetracked," "don't sway back and forth," "no dithering," as well as "no major changes."

When the above words were mentioned in casual conversations to colleagues from the English media, all agreed that none of the translations were adequate, since they do not convey the ideas of "chaos" and "self-consumption" associated with the word "zheteng."

Interestingly, during a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on December 30, when a reporter asked about "bu zheteng", the interpreter on site directly used the Chinese pinyin "bu zheteng" when referring to the phrase, drawing another round of laughter from the audience. Afterwards, this was praised by the Chinese media in articles saying that "bu zheteng" may become a proper noun in the English language.

After spending some time working on the translation of "bu zheteng", the Chinese pinyin "bu zheteng" has become its translation. It’s not the first time for Modern Chinese words to be added to the English vocabulary. Take spaceperson for example; North Americans use the word "astronaut," the former Soviet Union uses "cosmonaut," and now, since 2003, there has been a new word in space terminology, "taikonaut" (originating from Chinese pinyin "taikong," meaning outer space), which means Chinese spaceperson. As a country's national power grows, or it receives more attention, that particular country will have the opportunity to contribute to the vocabularies of foreign languages.

The article says that despite this, the official authoritative interpretation of "bu zheteng" is still absent, probably in order to leave ambiguous room for various interpretations. On the Internet, there are articles that highly praise the phrase "bu zheteng", saying that it demonstrates the wisdom of the Communist Party of China. At the same time, there are netizens that do not accept this, with some arguing that "ordinary people just want to live a trouble-free life and do not want any unnecessary trouble."

By People's Daily Online


http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90782/90873/6570469.html#

Selamat datang!

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